Hotels are a Good Fit for EB-5’s Original Intent
- By Wagner Consulting Group
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- 06 Sep, 2017
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New data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and an interesting report from the prestigious Rand Corporation help to illustrate how hotel development projects are a good fit for the EB-5 program and its original intent: to create jobs for the unemployed.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, in May and June of 2017, the leisure/hospitality industry had the highest unemployment rate of all industries at 6.3% and 6.1%, respectively. For the past year, the industry with the highest unemployment rate has either been the leisure/hospitality industry or the construction industry. A hotel development project will create jobs in both of these high-unemployment industries. According to the Rand Corporation report, the travel/tourism industry is more likely than any other industry to hire workers that are not otherwise employed. From 2010 to 2013, almost 40% of workers entering the travel/tourism industry were not in the paid labor force in the prior year. Many of these workers were unemployed and many were in school.
Therefore, hotel development projects create jobs in two industries that suffer from very high unemployment and need more job opportunities. In addition, one of those industries—travel/tourism—is more likely than other industries to hire workers that were previously unemployed. The U.S. Congress created the EB-5 Program and the Immigrant Investor Program to create jobs during a time when unemployment was on the rise. EB-5 hotel development projects are fulfilling the original intent of the program by creating jobs for those that do not have jobs. To be clear, there are other reasons why hotels are a good fit for EB-5. From the perspective of the investor, hotels are stable and predictable investment projects. However, this new data provides a favorable view of EB-5 hotel development projects from the perspective of the U.S. Congress and its original intent for the EB-5 program.
The U.S. Congress is debating changes to the EB-5 program. Most legislators agree that the rules defining Targeted Employment Areas (TEA) need to be revised. The current definition of a TEA is very broad and flexible, which permits almost any location in the United States to be qualified as a TEA. There are several proposals for a revised definition of a TEA and none have been finalized. The specifics and merit of these proposals are beyond the scope of this note. However, the current consensus is that the TEA rules will become much more restrictive and will discourage EB-5 investment in many popular cities. For example, investment projects in attractive neighborhoods like Manhattan, Downtown Seattle, and Miami Beach will no longer qualify for TEA status and the reduced investment threshold.
It is important for a potential investor to consider the impact of new TEA rules when choosing a regional center. In addition to a strong USCIS track record and experienced staff, a regional center should also demonstrate that it will be financially and operationally stable under new TEA rules and throughout the EB-5 immigration process. A potential investor should pay particular attention to a regional center’s geographic diversity and business model. Geographic diversity is important because the pipeline of EB-5 projects may shift to alternative cities and neighborhoods. A regional center with a large jurisdiction and a geographically diverse portfolio has previous experience in alternative cities and will be more likely to succeed under more restrictive TEA rules. In addition, it is important that the regional center have a business model that is proven to succeed in alternative cities and neighborhoods. For example, a business model that is focused on high-profile mega-developments may be economically feasible in Manhattan but not in places like Buffalo, Charlotte, or Jacksonville. A business model that is focused on small- and medium-sized developments is more likely to succeed in alternative cities and neighborhoods throughout the United States.
TEA-qualified investment projects currently represent over 90% of the EB-5 program. When the U.S. Congress enacts more restrictive TEA rules, regional centers may have to adapt to the new rules in order to remain financial and operationally viable. A regional center’s geographic diversity and business model may strongly influence its ability to do so.
目前的目标就业区定义是怎样的呢？目前的定义是非常宽松和灵活的。从技术角度讲，几乎美国任何区域都能够按照州政府确定的认证规则被认定成为目标就业区。虽然修改规则的建议已经讨论不止一两天了，可是迄今为止任何新的统一规则也没有最终落实过。比较当前不同提案不是我们这篇文章的主要目的，我们只需要接受一个高度概括的共识：目标就业区的认定将会变得更加严格。许多充满EB-5项目的大城市将会因为新政策的限制而无法再按照目标就业区的优惠投资额募集资金，比如像纽约曼哈顿区，西雅图市中心区以及迈阿密海滩等颇有吸引力的地点。那么，什么样的区域中心在这次大洗牌后可以存活下来，甚至更健康发展呢？
1. 首先，投资人必须仔细考虑区域中心在不同地理区域是否都有成功的操作经验。一家理想的区域中心，除了需要具备处理移民申请（从I-526申请到I-829申请）的丰富经验和良好纪录，是否能在新的目标就业区规则实施后复制以往的成功经验，在新地点的项目上保持稳定的财务和运营状态至关重要。举例来说，有一些区域中心，尽管过去成功运营了一系列项目，但都局限于某一大城市区域，一旦面对更加“乡村化”的新项目，操作经验不足，可能力不从心，从头学起。投资人应该尽量避开这些区域中心，因为它们也需要一个适应过程，难免在新规则实施的初期遇到挫折。
2. 其次，投资人应特别关注和重点选择具备商业模式多样性的区域中心。要注意到，地域的改变会导致商业模式也相应调整。比如说，原来在大城市的核心区开发高密度的公寓可能具备很高的商业价值，项目地点移到郊区后，公寓需求就不再强烈，中小规模酒店和购物中心的需求也许还能保留下来，但是开发规模和层次却很可能大不相同。这种情况下，同样的区域中心，是否适应新的商业开发需求呢？投资人请注意，在当前已经以多种不同商业模式运营项目的区域中心应该是未来目标就业区调整后的重点考察对象！
3. 最后，投资人需要关注目前在所谓“乡村地带”成功运营着项目的区域中心。这些区域中心的项目在未来新规则实施后无须做任何调整，属于完全不受新政策影响的经营实体。这些区域中心未来可以轻松保持经营上的一致性，从控制风险角度来说是最理想的选择。如果这样的区域中心已经有成功的记录，理所应当是投资人重点选择的对象。
目前目标就业区的投资项目占投资移民项目的90％以上。当美国国会制定了更严格的目标就业区认定规则后，绝大部分区域中心都将不得不努力适应新的规则，维持运营，继续发展。一个区域中心的地域多样性和商业模式多样性将会强烈影响其运营能力，而已经有乡村地带运营经验的区域中心则无须做任何调整。
根据美国劳工统计局的最新数据和美国著名智库兰德公司（Rand）的分析报告, 酒店开发类项目非常适合作为EB-5项目，因为酒店开发类项目完成就业的难度小于所有其它类型的项目。
美国劳工统计局的数据显示，2017年的5月和6月，休闲业和酒店服务业是所有行业里“可招聘”待业人数最多的行业，分别占总待业人口的6.3％和6.1％；而在过去的一年里，根据统计，待业人数最多的行业除了休闲业和酒店服务业，就剩下建筑行业了。酒店开发类项目的就业需求刚好对准了这几个就业供给量最大，就业人员储备最丰富的行业类型。同时，根据兰德公司的报告，旅游业比任何其他行业都更有可能雇用未经专业培训的普通待业人口。从2010年到2013年，进入旅行/旅游业的新雇员中，有将近40％的人在过去的一年里没有工作，这些人中大部分已经失业很久，或者正在求学。
酒店开发类项目的就业类型聚焦美国最大的待业人群，因此就业岗位招聘的可选性最大，最容易找到合适的人选。此外，旅游业对从业人员的就业要求相对较低，因而在招聘范围上也最大限度包含了待业时间较长，无法在其它就业培训基础要求高的行业找到机会的待业人群。美国国会在上个世纪90年代初期失业率上升的情况下创建了EB-5投资移民计划，主要目的就是最大程度削减待业人口，就业岗位类型或者就业属于哪个行业并不重要。EB-5酒店开发项目针对最大的待业人群创造新的就业机会，实现该计划显然最有效率。当然酒店适合作为EB-5项目还有其他原因，比如从投资者的角度来说，酒店是现金流稳定和资产价值提升空间可观的商业地产，在接受投资时也可以作为贷款抵押来降低投资的风险，提高投资的安全性等。从满足EB-5计划的初衷来看，以上的数据为EB-5酒店开发类项目占据行业第一把交椅的现象提供了有力的论据。
